⚽ Norway Women vs Iceland Women – Pre‑Match Tactical Analysis (10 July 2025)

1. 📋 Form & Momentum

• Norway arrive in strong momentum—back-to-back Euro wins (2–1 vs Finland, 2–1 vs Switzerland) following a rebound from a loss to Sweden. They have not lost at this tournament and boast a three-game unbeaten streak.
• Iceland have been unable to find their footing—three straight losses in Euro fixtures (0–2 vs Finland, 0–2 vs Switzerland, preceded by a Nations League exit). Confidence and attacking fluency appear muted.

2. 📈 Expected Goals (xG)

• Norway posted a healthy ~1.8 xG in each of their wins, generating clear-cut opportunities and converting efficiently.
• Iceland’s xG has hovered around ~0.4–0.6 in Euro matches, signaling a lack of high-quality chances and subdued attacking stats.

3. 🎯 Goals Scored & Conceded

• Norway have scored four goals while conceding three, showing both attacking assertiveness and occasional defensive exposure.
• Iceland remain goalless in two tournament outings and have let in four goals—a concerning trend in both defence and attack.

4. 🚑 Injuries & Squad Availability

• Norway are near full strength; midfielder Lisa Naalsund is back from injury and adds composure to the center.
• Iceland miss key forward Karólína Lea Vilhjálmsdóttir through tactical rotation; their creativity and transition threat are diminished.

5. 🏟️ Venue & Home/Away Performance

Played at neutral Thun, both sides avoid home advantage. However, Norway have handled travel demands well and show stronger adaptability in alpine match conditions.

6. 🌍 Rankings & Comparative Strength

• Norway, ranked around 8–10 in Europe, edge ahead on ELO and tournament pedigree.
• Iceland sit around 12–14 with no points so far—struggling to match up with this level.

7. 📋 Predicted Lineups & Shape

• Norway (4‑3‑3): Guro Reiten, Ada Hegerberg, Lisa Naalsund; midfield triangle to dominate transitions; deep defensive line allowing width from full-backs.
• Iceland (4‑2‑3‑1): Reliant on quick counters via central pivot; forward line led by Alexandra Johannesdóttir lacking support after loss of Vilhjálmsdóttir.

8. ⚔️ Tactical Matchups

• Midfield authority: Naalsund and co. vs Iceland’s double pivot—Norway’s tempo will decide possession game.
• Wing duels: Norway’s wide forwards against Iceland’s full-backs—pace will stretch Iceland and create overloads.
• Transition tests: Iceland’s lone striker must exploit gaps on counter; Norway’s midfield must prevent space behind defense.

9. 📊 Key Metrics & Game Flow

• Norway limit opponents to under 10 shots on target and dominate possession (~60%)—their 22-shot average shows initiative and controlled aggression.
• Iceland average under 12 shots and 45–50% possession—struggles persist to create chances and impose structure.

10. 💰 Odds & Market Sentiment

• Norway are heavy favorites (~–250, ~71% implied). Draw ~+400, Iceland ~+1000 (~9%).
• Markets favor Under 2.5 goals (~65%) and No on BTTS (~70%), reflecting expectation of structured but not open football.

🔮 Expert Predictions

1X2 Prediction: 1 – Norway Win. Tactical clarity, current form, and stat superiority position Norway as clear victors—expect a grueling match but a predictable outcome.

Final Word: Norway’s control of midfield and tempo will be decisive—dominating possession, creating chances, and wearing down Iceland. This match is Norway’s to lose; expect a measured but authoritative win.