⚽ Benfica vs Chelsea – Pre‑Match Tactical Analysis (28 June 2025)

1. 📋 Recent Form & Context

• Benfica advanced from Group C but started tentatively in the Round of 16, struggling to break down Chelsea’s deep block until Di María’s late penalty forced extra time. An early red card pushed them into a defensive posture, yet they showed fight until the finish.
• Chelsea rode strong momentum after a 3–0 group-stage win over Esperance and impressive solidity under Enzo Maresca. The 4–1 extra-time win over Benfica, despite weather delays, showcased their depth and resilience.

2. 📈 xG & Performance Metrics

• Against Benfica, Chelsea posted ~2.82 xG compared to Benfica’s ~1.25 (xGscore). They created 4.47 xGOT, indicating strong chance creation, while Benfica remained underwhelming in open play.
• Chelsea overperformed on their xG, capitalizing on chances with clinical finishes in extra time. Benfica’s xG suggested parity but they lacked composure in the final third.

3. 🎯 Goals Scored & Defensive Displays

• Chelsea scored four goals in extra time, highlighting their attacking adaptability and bench strength. Reece James opened the scoring with a fine free-kick, followed by finishes from Nkunku, Neto, and Dewsbury-Hall.
• Benfica’s defense showed heart but fatigue and being down a man left gaps. Di María scored before the red card but they collapsed late.

4. 🚑 Absences & Tactical Rotation

• Benfica lost a man late—Gianluca Prestianni’s red shifted their midfield balance. No major injuries reported pre-match.
• Chelsea rested key players in the group stage and introduced Delap, Neto, and Nkunku effectively. Jackson remains suspended, but rotation has yielded high returns.

5. ⚽ Home/Away & Environmental Conditions

Played in Charlotte under storm-intense weather conditions. Delays tested game management: Chelsea adapted well, keeping sharp in the long pauses, while Benfica seemed unsettled post-resumption.

6. 📊 Head-to-Head & Battleground Stats

• This matchup is a fresh contest—no recent direct history outside this clash. Both teams brought contrasting styles: Benfica’s possession vs Chelsea’s structured efficiency.
• Chelsea averaged 22 shots (12 on target); Benfica had 8 (5 on target). Possession was 64% vs 36% in Chelsea’s favour (ESPN). Chelsea led clearly in penetration stats.

7. 🔍 Tactical Matchups & Key Duels

• Midfield battle: Caicedo, Lavia, and Fernández dominated possession, out-muscling Benfica’s engine room and dictating tempo.
• Wing play: Reece James and Cucurella surged forward, exposing Benfica fullbacks. Pedro Neto and Nkunku provided unpredictable threat off the bench.
• Defensive composure: Ben’s backline dropped late under pressure. Chelsea’s structured pressing led to that game-changing red and openings down the flanks.

8. 💰 Bookmaker Odds & Market Outlook

• Chelsea were pre-match favourites (~1.67), Benfica outsiders (~5.40), with draw around (~3.75). Markets leaned Over 2.5 goals and expected aggressive tempo.
• Betting nods went to Chelsea’s depth and Maresca's tactical appetite—especially after weather-forced chaos and their extra-time dominance.

🔮 Expert Scoreline Predictions

1X2 Prediction: 2 – Chelsea Win. Their superior depth, tactical adaptability, and efficiency advantage make them clear favourites—though Benfica’s resilience and conditions might narrow the margin.

Final Word: Expect a tactical, possession-heavy clash punctuated by Chelsea’s decisive breaking moments. Benfica fight till the end, but Chelsea’s bench, structure, and killer instinct are likely to break them late.